OBAMA ON SOUTH ASIA- ASSAM,NE REGION

Guwahati 16 November,2008
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Barack HusseinObama has stood for a change in the USA and the rest of the world, by disowning Republican obsessions in imagined WMD-aggression in Iraq.Recession imposed from within and without altered the dogmatic neo-liberal market economy by pumping in a big corpus of state money in private banks of the USA.

Yet recession would not hold up Obama presidency to fight back political Islam of Al Qaeda or Taliban brand; hence, his focus on NWP tribal areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan. What Jakarta expects of him on possible rolling back on US offensive on the extreme fringe on political Islam could remain a wishful thinking.Yet,Obama advisors want that Obama would not be a Bush II and symbol of worldwide hatred of American arrogance.

His proposed envoy on Kashmir - ex prez.Bill Clinton might revive a peace offensive in Jammu and Kashmir.Indian hawks would naturally harp upon Bhutto-Indira Shimla agreement on bilateralism, refurbished Tashkent agreement,so on- some of the agreements had already changed after Kargil engagement. Indian hawks would like to sustain war for their choice and gains in the military industry. Obama trusts upon multilateralism in Kashmir issue and by, extension to Assam issue and unrest in the rest of the NE region for more than half a century.

Obama's fight against terrorism in general could be qualified by re-defined parameters like more enhancement of trade and economic engagements in South and South East Asia. India as the USA strategic buffer against a rising superpower- the Peoples Republic of China [ say,Communist China,not Taiwan] would be Obama's priority, not excluding his pressure on India and Pakistan to join CTBT and actual nuclear non-proliferation; reason- to pre-empt a mistaken nuclear flare -up in South Asia.

India's conflict zone had been over-focussed on Kashmir alone at the cost of the insurgency in Assam and the rest of the NE region.Should his proposed multilateralism be imagined as Kashmir-specific or, a strategic tool is what the analysts have to think about.Realpolitik demands a principle first, and then, it political application.Eggs in plenty are in his basket.Peace in South Asia is possible if Assam and the NE region is made a factor in strategic analysis of Obama advisors, some of whom are the legacy of Clinton.Ms.Clinton,a proposed name for the post of secretary of state is a name to be reckoned, since she did more homeworks in Clinton presidency than any one else.

Assam that figured in British Indian chronolgy since 1826 had been searching for a political constitution comparable only to that of pre-August 9,1953 Kashmir constitution.Assam's premier Gopinath Bardoloi had pleaded as many as three times in 1946 for a separate constitution of Assam.The diehard unitarists or war-mongers overlooked Bardoloi proposition due largely to ignorance and preponderance of political opportunism.

In the political roadmap of Assam, the powerful students' union demands re-federalisation of India with Assam and the national liberation outfit demands restoration of Assam's sovereignty and hence, the movement since 1979 till date.A section of the local elites would suggest the need for application of Paris principles of 1975 that brought NSCN to the table in 1995 by PM Rao of India.The conditions agreed upon by the parties had been- talks confined to sovereignty of Nagaland, at the level of prime ministers only ,and venue- outside India. The Assamese counterpart might have insisted upon the application of Paris principles,1995 to Assam_India talks.The two talks bear the same parameters,notwithstanding other secondary paradigms.

Obama's multilateralism is a positive stance to break the ice in South Asia.Naturally, external affairs hawks might be skeptical for scripting a permanent peace architecture in South Asia without imagining a win-win situation.
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