GUWAHATI, 8 NOV.2008
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South Asia is a mess-up in economic and security terms for the US strategic analysts,let alone American obsession with the emerging super power- communist China- the PRC.No US president could afford to neglect South Asia, particularly India that could be American buffer against its imagined rival-the next super power- People's Republic of China, with which a meltdown had already happened in Ma0-Nixon era, largely due to the astute forein policy managment of Harvard professor-secretary of state-Henry Kissinger, who the Americans consider as a benign necessary evil.
The South Asian leaders and PMs had profusely wecomed Barack Hussein Obama with hidden consideration of political over-expectations that unnerved even the Americans at home.Even Harijan chief minister Mayavati and the colored Indians at Jharkhand- Indian counterpart of Barack's Kenyan ancestry had celebrated his victory.
Even the Taliban leader in Afghanistan made lukewarm response to Obama; they knew that Obama might send more troops in Afghanistan and Pakistan if 'actionable intelligence' could be gathered.Obama would naturally make a shift from ' Mushraf-centric' US policy towards more PPP-friendly gestures.The difference- towards Pakistan: tough talk with a threat; and towards Afghanistan- real US threat to Islamist terrorists.
Taliban leader had spoken : if Bush policy continues, "..then, our struggle against America will continue." Obama is all out for removal of' terrorist' safe haven' from Afghanistan.Pakistan could facilitate the fight,less Pakistan - as an old ally ,could be another US casualty.
One of Obama's advisor on foreign policy is Bruce Reidel from Brookings institution, a CIA person with 29 years experience in CIA operation and decision makings. His scripting of foreign policy towards South Asia could be Reidel's own refined reflection.
India is at the US priority list- for economic cooperation , security relationship,and better trade relations.China factor will always figure even in the agenda of the new 'candidate for change' that Obama represents.He would insist on re-fedining India's unwilling cooperation on his nuclear non-proliferation agenda; India's smart hawks would play unilateral moratorium game and NSG execptionalism, which Pakistan might be equally entitled to, with Chinese push up. Sri Lanka - a low priority area-would not escape attention of the new presidency.Peace in South Asia might not be a reality as long as the LTTE issue continues the festering wound.
Obama is for change.Is change ready for a wedlock with the new white house groom is another question of American pragmatism.Realpolitik is a harder nut to crack than pontificating change at the time of getting on the political escalator.
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