6 January,2009-British way of conflict resolution
strategic analysis of escalating armed conflict situation:
prime minister's speech in 96 Indian Science Congress on
disarming the insurgents
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Telegraph [ read voice of bengal in Guwahati]
headlines, 4 january,2008,guwahati edition
Singh talks tough on terror
________ NEGOTIATIONS ONLY
WAY TO PEACE, REBELS TOLD
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Rhetorically speaking, none in human history including Amin,Fuhrer et. al. had ever ceased preaching peace; honest broker and CBMs for triggering off a successful political talk are the only scarce commodities in the jargon-thick politicking process.
__ Certain preliminary issues are not made convincing to all the potential talk partnerships.a] Has the government of India given unambiguous evidence that her talks with the NSCN-IM since 1997 had been fructuous and the tangible results are cropped by the two parties; no sensible group albeit the intelligence- sponsored fungal, mushrooming corporate clubs would blink at the rhetoric.
______b]Has the government of India identified the groups into - those just a few powerful ones which apparently make little compromises with their national sovereignty demands and those which desire better treatment under the present
constitutional dispensation with a minor modification in the constitution .There are a large number of groups like Cobra,ANLNA so and so forth that ask for tribal status, scholarship, fund, reservation etc. of their community and also a large number of unidentified fundamentalist or, state sponsored bodies armed to the teeth.The mess-up in the region is largely due to union government's own deliberate making through its intelligence handiwork.
____About the last mythical category, the author is no longer hypothetical, since a number of recent publications authored by high level RAW/IB officials like Asok Raina,M.K.Dhar,BR Raman,K.Sankaran,general VK.Singh,TI .Sagar and many more have already flooded the international and Indian market.They have revealed a tip of the iceberg that itself is horribale to digest[ some of their revelations would be discussed in course of time, exactly in their own words].In summation of their categorical revelations, the author may state that 95% 0f the insurgent ,militant or terrorist orgs. had been the creation of the Leviathan- the monolithic, inscrutable, invisible state intelligence of one kind or another. This is a mere faithful reporting of their RAW authors' revelations and the the author has no access to the dynamics or equations or their charters.Unlike CIA, the RAW is accountable to nobody in the world .The author does not undermine their political demands either.One can just spend something in book stall and realise the bitter truth,the author has no dispute with truths.
______Whom to talk to and how to talk to is as simple as most perplexing ever.Is there any standard model for such hard talks for political bargaining and negotiations? Probably no- no Da Vinci Code either nor Justinian nor Manuvian nor Confucian.Some of the recent political negotiations like the one facilitated till 2004 by a Nowegian in the Tamil eelam issue broke down ,and the NSCN-IM talk is yet to scratch a preamble stone after 12 x365 days of protracted negotiation. Recent talks bear the best evidence of impasse or,'NO-Talk-at-all' negotiation that might have sent the real signals to the would be partnership.
_______Of talks_ productive and absolutely non-productive, Good Friday Agreement 10 April,1998 is so far the best evidence of a successful political negotiation between the Catholic -based IRA [1968 or, provisional IRA since 1971] and Protestant-based government of Britain. The Anglo-Irish Agreement 1985 did not take off unlike the 1998 agreement which is functional- a bit limping though _ albeit hiccups,made out by the British government vi-a'-vis the institutions carved out of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.Meaningful peace has been steadily restored in that part of the unquiet world.This agreement could be characterised as 'productive and result-friendly'.The other farcical ones would remain a farce along side the festering political wounds.
_____Strategic analysts,unimpeded and unencumbered by heavy hearts of imaginary national baggages in the mindset, would appreciate the way the 1998 Belfast agreement had been hammered out by the leaderships in partnership.Is it a test case worthy of emulation by the union government? Might be.
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Bomb blasts, violence, assasinations happened in Britain as long as the IRA issue had not been resolved by the non-third world leaders.For Scotland referendum to be held in 2010 and Welsh national questions that pose reality in Britain, the author defers opinion in the present piece.They are valid issues undoubtedly.Should the union government follow the parliamentary model of the British government in allowing Scotland to conduct past plebiscites and one more in 2010,the union-NE rebels conflict could be easily resolved by seeking public opinion on a single issue - the referendum.It is an open question.
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THE WHOLE PARADIGM:
1] phase one- 1993 declaration by British PM John Major about the outlines of the proposed peace negotiations.
2] phase two- Two framework of negotiations worked out and signed by the two parties in armed conflict.Without a framework, everything is illusory and impossible.
3] phase three- the core and substantive negotiation based on the fulfilment of the first two phases[ for details of Belfast Agreement,1998,pl. see TIME,NY,April 20,1998 and NEWSWEEK issues,among others ].We come directly to the phase three -core negotiation.
### The major metropolitan party- here, the British government of labour party had the political and constitutional strength of holding negotiations of such category.John Major had the will to do ,but had the incapacity to act as his government lacked the two-third majority in the lower house,unlike the Labour prime minister in 1998, who had the constitutional capacity to negotiate and 'act upon the will'.Barring Rajiv government, rest of the governments are either minority or coalition or simple majority governments that is incapabale of reaching out to permanent solutions in the true sense of the term.Rhetoric and capacity are ocean apart in terms of hard result-friendly talks that bear fruits.
### The Belfast paradigm had considered the guaranter as very vital and indispensable for a result-friendly negotiation.The Belfast talk-guaranters had included primarily the US president Bill Clinton and others like-US senate leader George Mitchell, Irish prime minister Arhern,British prime minister. The guaranters not only facilitate the talks,but also prevent the talks from a total breakdown or, even sliding down the abyss or, saving the talks from signing off.
____Diplomats with impaired judgement would not hesitate to sign off a talk in the midway.The guaranter checks the breakdown.The eelam talks had just one facilitator till 2002, and the NSCN-IM talk had neither a facilitator nor the most essential talk component- a guarantor.
### As regards weapon decommissioning, it is made applicable to all the parties in the armed conflict,not merely to the IRA or whatever.Weapon decommissioning of both the parties is the foundation of peace process.In 1964, the Nagaland peace committee led by JP Narain recommended simultaneously the prompt withdrawal of Indian army from Nagaland, and deposit of the rebel weapons .The IRA on this count, wanted to defer the weapon decommissioning till 2000 AD.
[ on structure of negotiation, pl.see n.sanajaoba,Current legal essays, 2007 pp.187-227]
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The prime minister's 96 Indian Science Congress lecture at Shillong on disarming NE rebels for talks has not transcended the routine generalties and his bonafide intentions to bring just and durable peace could have highlighted the framework of negotiations as much as British PM - his counterpart generously did in 1993 by making official pronouncement of Downing Street Declaration.He has to build up CBMs by concretising the roadmap and defining the parameters without frittreing away to rhetoric and imponderable generalities.
_6 January 2009- British way of conflict resolution-context PM's call to rebels at Shillong___________________________
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